A simplified longitudinal model for the development of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus.

Obesity and diabetes are a progressively more and more deleterious hallmark of modern, well fed societies. In order to study the potential impact of strategies designed to obviate the pathological consequences of detrimental lifestyles, a model for the development of Type 2 diabetes geared towards large population simulations would be useful. The present work introduces such a model, representing in simplified fashion the interplay between average glycemia, average insulinemia and functional beta-cell mass, and incorporating the effects of excess food intake or, conversely, of physical activity levels. Qualitative properties of the model are formally established and simulations are shown as examples of its use.

Recruitment-to-inflation Ratio Assessed through Sequential End-expiratory Lung Volume Measurement in Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) benefits in acute respiratory distress syndrome are driven by lung dynamic strain reduction. This depends on the variable extent of alveolar recruitment. The recruitment-to-inflation ratio estimates recruitability across a 10-cm H2O PEEP range through a simplified maneuver. Whether recruitability is uniform or not across this range is unknown. The hypotheses of this study are that the recruitment-to-inflation ratio represents an accurate estimate of PEEP-induced changes in dynamic strain, but may show nonuniform behavior across the conventionally tested PEEP range (15 to 5 cm H2O). METHODS: Twenty patients with moderate-to-severe COVID-19 acute respiratory distress syndrome underwent a decremental PEEP trial (PEEP 15 to 13 to 10 to 8 to 5 cm H2O). Respiratory mechanics and end-expiratory lung volume by nitrogen dilution were measured the end of each step. Gas exchange, recruited volume, recruitment-to-inflation ratio, and changes in dynamic, static, and total strain were computed between 15 and 5 cm H2O (global recruitment-to-inflation ratio) and within narrower PEEP ranges (granular recruitment-to-inflation ratio). RESULTS: Between 15 and 5 cm H2O, median [interquartile range] global recruitment-to-inflation ratio was 1.27 [0.40 to 1.69] and displayed a linear correlation with PEEP-induced dynamic strain reduction (r = -0.94; P < 0.001). Intraindividual recruitment-to-inflation ratio variability within the narrower ranges was high (85% [70 to 109]). The relationship between granular recruitment-to-inflation ratio and PEEP was mathematically described by a nonlinear, quadratic equation (R2 = 0.96). Granular recruitment-to-inflation ratio across the narrower PEEP ranges itself had a linear correlation with PEEP-induced reduction in dynamic strain (r = -0.89; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Both global and granular recruitment-to-inflation ratio accurately estimate PEEP-induced changes in lung dynamic strain. However, the effect of 10 cm H2O of PEEP on lung strain may be nonuniform. Granular recruitment-to-inflation ratio assessment within narrower PEEP ranges guided by end-expiratory lung volume measurement may aid more precise PEEP selection, especially when the recruitment-to-inflation ratio obtained with the simplified maneuver between PEEP 15 and 5 cm H2O yields intermediate values that are difficult to interpret for a proper choice between a high and low PEEP strategy.

Modeling outcome trajectories in patients with acquired brain injury using a non-linear dynamic evolution approach.

This study describes a dynamic non-linear mathematical approach for modeling the course of disease in acquired brain injury (ABI) patients. Data from a multicentric study were used to evaluate the reliability of the Michaelis-Menten (MM) model applied to well-known clinical variables that assess the outcome of ABI patients. The sample consisted of 156 ABI patients admitted to eight neurorehabilitation subacute units and evaluated at baseline (T0), 4 months after the event (T1) and at discharge (T2). The MM model was used to characterize the trend of the first Principal Component Analysis (PCA) dimension (represented by the variables: feeding modality, RLAS, ERBI-A, Tracheostomy, CRS-r and ERBI-B) in order to predict the most plausible outcome, in terms of positive or negative Glasgow outcome score (GOS) at discharge. Exploring the evolution of the PCA dimension 1 over time, after day 86 the MM model better differentiated between the time course for individuals with a positive and negative GOS (accuracy: 85%; sensitivity: 90.6%; specificity: 62.5%). The non-linear dynamic mathematical model can be used to provide more comprehensive trajectories of the clinical evolution of ABI patients during the rehabilitation period. Our model can be used to address patients for interventions designed for a specific outcome trajectory.

Bariatric-metabolic surgery versus lifestyle intervention plus best medical care in non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (BRAVES): a multicentre, open-label, randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Observational studies suggest that bariatric-metabolic surgery might greatly improve non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). However, the efficacy of surgery on NASH has not yet been compared with the effects of lifestyle interventions and medical therapy in a randomised trial. METHODS: We did a multicentre, open-label, randomised trial at three major hospitals in Rome, Italy. We included participants aged 25-70 years with obesity (BMI 30-55 kg/m2), with or without type 2 diabetes, with histologically confirmed NASH. We randomly assigned (1:1:1) participants to lifestyle modification plus best medical care, Roux-en-Y gastric bypass, or sleeve gastrectomy. The primary endpoint of the study was histological resolution of NASH without worsening of fibrosis at 1-year follow-up. This study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03524365. FINDINGS: Between April 15, 2019, and June 21, 2021, we biopsy screened 431 participants; of these, 103 (24%) did not have histological NASH and 40 (9%) declined to participate. We randomly assigned 288 (67%) participants with biopsy-proven NASH to lifestyle modification plus best medical care (n=96 [33%]), Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (n=96 [33%]), or sleeve gastrectomy (n=96 [33%]). In the intention-to-treat analysis, the percentage of participants who met the primary endpoint was significantly higher in the Roux-en-Y gastric bypass group (54 [56%]) and sleeve gastrectomy group (55 [57%]) compared with lifestyle modification (15 [16%]; p<0·0001). The calculated probability of NASH resolution was 3·60 times greater (95% CI 2·19-5·92; p<0·0001) in the Roux-en-Y gastric bypass group and 3·67 times greater (2·23-6·02; p<0·0001) in the sleeve gastrectomy group compared with in the lifestyle modification group. In the per protocol analysis (236 [82%] participants who completed the trial), the primary endpoint was met in 54 (70%) of 77 participants in the Roux-en-Y gastric bypass group and 55 (70%) of 79 participants in the sleeve gastrectomy group, compared with 15 (19%) of 80 in the lifestyle modification group (p<0·0001). No deaths or life-threatening complications were reported in this study. Severe adverse events occurred in ten (6%) participants who had bariatric-metabolic surgery, but these participants did not require re-operations and severe adverse events were resolved with medical or endoscopic management. INTERPRETATION: Bariatric-metabolic surgery is more effective than lifestyle interventions and optimised medical therapy in the treatment of NASH. FUNDING: Fondazione Policlinico Universitario A Gemelli, Policlinico Universitario Umberto I and S Camillo Hospital, Rome, Italy.

Accurate liquid biopsy for the diagnosis of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis and liver fibrosis.

OBJECTIVE: Clinical diagnosis and approval of new medications for non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) require invasive liver biopsies. The aim of our study was to identify non-invasive biomarkers of NASH and/or liver fibrosis. DESIGN: This multicentre study includes 250 patients (discovery cohort, n=100 subjects (Bariatric Surgery Versus Non-alcoholic Steato-hepatitis - BRAVES trial); validation cohort, n=150 (Liquid Biopsy for NASH and Liver Fibrosis - LIBRA trial)) with histologically proven non-alcoholic fatty liver (NAFL) or NASH with or without fibrosis. Proteomics was performed in monocytes and hepatic stellate cells (HSCs) with iTRAQ-nano- Liquid Chromatography - Mass Spectrometry/Mass Spectrometry (LC-MS/MS), while flow cytometry measured perilipin-2 (PLIN2) and RAB14 in peripheral blood CD14+CD16- monocytes. Neural network classifiers were used to predict presence/absence of NASH and NASH stages. Logistic bootstrap-based regression was used to measure the accuracy of predicting liver fibrosis. RESULTS: The algorithm for NASH using PLIN2 mean florescence intensity (MFI) combined with waist circumference, triglyceride, alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and presence/absence of diabetes as covariates had an accuracy of 93% in the discovery cohort and of 92% in the validation cohort. Sensitivity and specificity were 95% and 90% in the discovery cohort and 88% and 100% in the validation cohort, respectively.The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) for NAS level prediction ranged from 83.7% (CI 75.6% to 91.8%) in the discovery cohort to 97.8% (CI 95.8% to 99.8%) in the validation cohort.The algorithm including RAB14 MFI, age, waist circumference, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, plasma glucose and ALT levels as covariates to predict the presence of liver fibrosis yielded an AUROC of 95.9% (CI 87.9% to 100%) in the discovery cohort and 99.3% (CI 98.1% to 100%) in the validation cohort, respectively. Accuracy was 99.25%, sensitivity 100% and specificity 95.8% in the discovery cohort and 97.6%, 99% and 89.6% in the validation cohort. This novel biomarker was superior to currently used FIB4, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score and aspartate aminotransferase (AST)-to-platelet ratio and was comparable to ultrasound two-dimensional shear wave elastography. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed novel liquid biopsy is accurate, sensitive and specific in diagnosing the presence and severity of NASH or liver fibrosis and is more reliable than currently used biomarkers. CLINICAL TRIALS: Discovery multicentre cohort: Bariatric Surgery versus Non-Alcoholic Steatohepatitis, BRAVES, ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT03524365.Validation multicentre cohort: Liquid Biopsy for NASH and Fibrosis, LIBRA, ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT04677101.

A modelling approach to hepatic glucose production estimation.

Stable isotopes are currently used to measure glucose fluxes responsible for observed glucose concentrations, providing information on hepatic and peripheral insulin sensitivity. The determination of glucose turnover, along with fasting and postprandial glucose concentrations, is relevant for inferring insulin sensitivity levels. At equilibrium (e.g. during the fasting state) the rate of glucose entering the circulation equals its rate of disappearance from the circulation. If under these conditions tracer is infused at a constant rate and Specific Activity (SA) or Tracer to Tracee (TTR) ratio is computed, the Rate of Appearance (RA) equals the Rate of Disappearance (RD) and equals the ratio between infusion rate and TTR or SA. In the post-prandial situation or during perturbation studies, however, estimation of RA and RD becomes more complex because they are not necessarily equal and, furthermore, may vary over time due to gastric emptying, glucose absorption, appearance of ingested or infused glucose, variations of EGP and glucose disappearance. Up to now, the most commonly used approach to compute RA, RD and EGP has been the single-pool model by Steele. Several authors, however, report pitfalls in the use of this method, such as "paradoxical" increase in EGP immediately after meal ingestion and "negative" rates of EGP. Different attempts have been made to reduce the impact of these errors, but the same problems are still encountered. In the present work a completely different approach is proposed, where cold and labeled [6, 6-2H2] glucose observations are simultaneously fitted and where both RD and EGP are represented by simple but reasonable functions. As an example, this approach is applied to an intra-venous experiment, where cold glucose is infused at variable rates to reproduce a desired glycaemic time-course. The goal of the present work is to show that appropriate, if simple, modelling of the whole infusion procedure together with the underlying physiological system allows robust estimation of EGP with single-tracer administration, without the artefacts produced by the Steele method.

Validation of a simplified-geometry model of inhaled formoterol pharmacodynamics in asthmatic patients.

PharmacoKinetics (PK) and PharmacoDynamics (PD) mathematical models of inhaled bronchodilators represent useful tools for understanding the mechanisms of drug action and for the individuation of therapy regimens. A PK/PD model for inhaled bronchoactive compounds was previously proposed, incorporating a simplified-geometry approach: the key feature of that model is a mixed compartmental and spatially distributed representation of the kinetics, with the direct computation of representative flow rates from Ohm's law and bronchial diameter profiles. The aim of the present work is the enrichment and validation of this simplified geometry modeling approach against clinical efficacy data. The improved model is used to compute airflow response to treatment for each single virtual patient from a simulated population and it is found to produce very good fits to observed FEV1 profiles. The model provides a faithful quantitative description of the increasing degree of improvement with respect to basal conditions with continuing administration and with increasing drug dosages, as clinically expected.

[Hyperphosphatemic pseudotumoral calcinosis due to FGF23 mutation with secondary amyloidosis].

A 44 years old man was admitted for nephrotic syndrome and rapidly progressive renal failure. Two firm, tumour-like masses were localized around the left shoulder and the right hip joint. Since the age of 8 years old, the patient had a history of metastatic calcification of the soft tissues suggesting hyperphosphatemic pseudotumoral calcinosis. Despite treatment for a long time with phosphate binders the metastatic calcinosis had to be removed with several surgeries. The patient had also a history of recurrent fever associated with pain localized toward the two masses and underwent multiple antibiotic courses. Laboratory findings at admission confirmed nephrotic syndrome. S-creatinine was 2.8 mg/dl. Calcium was 8.4 mg/dl, Phosphorus 8.2 mg/dl, PTH 80 pg/ml, 25 (OH)VitD 8 ng/ml. Serum amyloid A was slightly increased. We performed renal biopsy and we found AA amyloid deposits involving the mesangium and the tubules. The bone marrow biopsy revealed the presence of AA amyloid in the vascular walls. During the next two months renal failure rapidly progressed and the patient started hemodialysis treatment. We performed genetic analysis that confirmed homozygous mutation of the FGF23 gene. After 14 months on hemodialysis, the patient's lesions are remarkably and significantly reduced in dimension. The current phosphate binder therapy is based on sevelamer and lanthanum carbonate. Serum amyloid A is persistently slightly increased as well as C reactive protein. Proteinuria is in the nephrotic range without nephrotic syndrome.

High-Flow Versus VenturiMask Oxygen Therapy to Prevent Reintubation in Hypoxemic Patients after Extubation: A Multicenter Randomized Clinical Trial.

Rationale: When compared with VenturiMask after extubation, high-flow nasal oxygen provides physiological advantages. Objectives: To establish whether high-flow oxygen prevents endotracheal reintubation in hypoxemic patients after extubation, compared with VenturiMask. Methods: In this multicenter randomized trial, 494 patients exhibiting PaO2:FiO2 ratio ⩽ 300 mm Hg after extubation were randomly assigned to receive high-flow or VenturiMask oxygen, with the possibility to apply rescue noninvasive ventilation before reintubation. High-flow use in the VenturiMask group was not permitted. Measurements and Main Results: The primary outcome was the rate of reintubation within 72 hours according to predefined criteria, which were validated a posteriori by an independent adjudication committee. Main secondary outcomes included reintubation rate at 28 days and the need for rescue noninvasive ventilation according to predefined criteria. After intubation criteria validation (n = 492 patients), 32 patients (13%) in the high-flow group and 27 patients (11%) in the VenturiMask group required reintubation at 72 hours (unadjusted odds ratio, 1.26 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.70-2.26]; P = 0.49). At 28 days, the rate of reintubation was 21% in the high-flow group and 23% in the VenturiMask group (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.89 [95% CI, 0.60-1.31]; P = 0.55). The need for rescue noninvasive ventilation was significantly lower in the high-flow group than in the VenturiMask group: at 72 hours, 8% versus 17% (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.39 [95% CI, 0.22-0.71]; P = 0.002) and at 28 days, 12% versus 21% (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.52 [95% CI, 0.32-0.83]; P = 0.007). Conclusions: Reintubation rate did not significantly differ between patients treated with VenturiMask or high-flow oxygen after extubation. High-flow oxygen yielded less frequent use of rescue noninvasive ventilation. Clinical trial registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT02107183).

A Mathematical Model of In Vitro Cellular Uptake of Zoledronic Acid and Isopentenyl Pyrophosphate Accumulation.

The mevalonate pathway is an attractive target for many areas of research, such as autoimmune disorders, atherosclerosis, Alzheimer's disease and cancer. Indeed, manipulating this pathway results in the alteration of malignant cell growth with promising therapeutic potential. There are several pharmacological options to block the mevalonate pathway in cancer cells, one of which is zoledronic acid (ZA) (an N-bisphosphonate (N-BP)), which inhibits the farnesyl pyrophosphate (FPP) synthase enzyme, inducing cell cycle arrest, apoptosis, inhibition of protein prenylation, and cholesterol reduction, as well as leading to the accumulation of isopentenyl pyrophosphate (IPP). We extrapolated the data based on two independently published papers that provide numerical data on the uptake of zoledronic acid (ZA) and the accumulation of IPP (Ag) and its isomer over time by using in vitro human cell line models. Two different mathematical models for IPP kinetics are proposed. The first model (Model 1) is a simpler ordinary differential equation (ODE) compartmental system composed of 3 equations with 10 parameters; the second model (Model 2) is a differential algebraic equation (DAE) system with 4 differential equations, 1 algebraic equation and 13 parameters incorporating the formation of the ZA+enzyme+Ag complex. Each of the two models aims to describe two different experimental situations (continuous and pulse experiments) with the same ZA kinetics. Both models fit the collected data very well. With Model 1, we obtained a prevision accumulation of IPP after 24 h of 169.6 pmol/mgprot/h with an IPP decreasing rate per (pmol/mgprot) of ZA (kXGZ) equal to 13.24/h. With Model 2, we have comprehensive kinetics of IPP upon ZA treatment. We calculate that the IPP concentration was equal to 141.6 pmol/mgprot/h with a decreasing rate/percentage of 0.051 (kXGU). The present study is the first to quantify the influence of ZA on the pharmacodynamics of IPP. While still incorporating a small number of parameters, Model 2 better represents the complexity of the biological behaviour for calculating the IPP produced in different situations, such as studies on γδ T cell-based immunotherapy. In the future, additional clinical studies are warranted to further evaluate and fine-tune dosing approaches.

Comprehensive Analysis of the ILCs and Unconventional T Cells in Virus Infection: Profiling and Dynamics Associated with COVID-19 Disease for a Future Monitoring System and Therapeutic Opportunities.

This review is a comprehensive analysis of the effects of SARS-CoV-2 infection on Unconventional T cells and innate lymphoid cells (ILCs). COVID-19 affected patients show dysregulation of their adaptive immune systems, but many questions remain unsolved on the behavior of Unconventional cells and ILCs during infection, considering their role in maintaining homeostasis in tissue. Therefore, we highlight the differences that exist among the studies in cohorts of patients who in general were categorized considering symptoms and hospitalization. Moreover, we make a critical analysis of the presence of particular clusters of cells that express activation and exhausted markers for each group in order to bring out potential diagnostic factors unconsidered before now. We also focus our attention on studies that take into consideration recovered patients. Indeed, it could be useful to determine Unconventional T cells' and ILCs' frequencies and functions in longitudinal studies because it could represent a way to monitor the immune status of SARS-CoV-2-infected subjects. Possible changes in cell frequencies or activation profiles could be potentially useful as prognostic biomarkers and for future therapy. Currently, there are no efficacious therapies for SARS-CoV-2 infection, but deep studies on involvement of Unconventional T cells and ILCs in the pathogenesis of COVID-19 could be promising for targeted therapies.

Individualized positive end-expiratory pressure guided by end-expiratory lung volume in early acute respiratory distress syndrome: study protocol for the multicenter, randomized IPERPEEP trial.

BACKGROUND: In acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), response to positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) is variable according to different degrees of lung recruitability. The search for a tool to individualize PEEP based on patients' individual response is warranted. End-expiratory lung volume (EELV) assessment by nitrogen washing-washout aids bedside estimation of PEEP-induced alveolar recruitment and may therefore help titrate PEEP on patient's individual recruitability. We designed a randomized trial to test whether an individualized PEEP setting protocol driven by EELV measurement may improve a composite clinical outcome in patients with moderate-to-severe ARDS (IPERPEEP trial). METHODS: IPERPEEP is an open-label, multicenter, randomized trial that will be conducted in 10 intensive care units in Italy and will enroll 132 ARDS patients showing PaO2/FiO2 ratio ≤ 150 mmHg within 24 h from endotracheal intubation while on mechanical ventilation with PEEP 5 cmH2O. To standardize lung volumes at study initiation, all patients will undergo mechanical ventilation with tidal volume of 6 ml/kg of predicted body weight and PEEP set to obtain a plateau pressure within 28 and 30 cmH2O for 30 min (EXPRESS PEEP). Afterwards, a 5-step decremental PEEP trial will be conducted (EXPRESS PEEP to PEEP 5 cmH2O), and EELV will be measured at each step. Recruitment-to-inflation ratio will be calculated for each PEEP range from EELV difference. Patients will be then randomized to receive mechanical ventilation with PEEP set according to the optimal recruitment observed in the PEEP trial (IPERPEEP arm) trial or to achieve a plateau pressure of 28-30 cmH2O (control arm, EXPRESS strategy). In both groups, tidal volume size, use of prone positioning and neuromuscular blocking agents, and weaning from PEEP and from mechanical ventilation will be standardized. The primary endpoint of the study is a composite clinical outcome incorporating in-ICU mortality, 60-day ventilator-free days, and serum interleukin-6 concentration over the course of the initial 72 h of treatment. DISCUSSION: The IPERPEEP study is a randomized trial powered to elucidate whether an individualized PEEP setting protocol based on bedside assessment of lung recruitability can improve a composite clinical outcome during moderate-to-severe ARDS. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04012073 . Registered 9 July 2019.

A mathematical model of cardiovascular dynamics for the diagnosis and prognosis of hemorrhagic shock.

A variety of mathematical models of the cardiovascular system have been suggested over several years in order to describe the time-course of a series of physiological variables (i.e. heart rate, cardiac output, arterial pressure) relevant for the compensation mechanisms to perturbations, such as severe haemorrhage. The current study provides a simple but realistic mathematical description of cardiovascular dynamics that may be useful in the assessment and prognosis of hemorrhagic shock. The present work proposes a first version of a differential-algebraic equations model, the model dynamical ODE model for haemorrhage (dODEg). The model consists of 10 differential and 14 algebraic equations, incorporating 61 model parameters. This model is capable of replicating the changes in heart rate, mean arterial pressure and cardiac output after the onset of bleeding observed in four experimental animal preparations and fits well to the experimental data. By predicting the time-course of the physiological response after haemorrhage, the dODEg model presented here may be of significant value for the quantitative assessment of conventional or novel therapeutic regimens. The model may be applied to the prediction of survivability and to the determination of the urgency of evacuation towards definitive surgical treatment in the operational setting.

A comparison among three maximal mathematical models of the glucose-insulin system.

The most well-known and widely used mathematical representations of the physiology of a diabetic individual are the Sorensen and Hovorka models as well as the UVAPadova Simulator. While the Hovorka model and the UVAPadova Simulator only describe the glucose metabolism of a subject with type 1 diabetes, the Sorensen model was formulated to simulate the behaviour of both normal and diabetic individuals. The UVAPadova model is the most known model, accepted by the FDA, with a high level of complexity. The Hovorka model is the simplest of the three models, well documented and used primarily for the development of control algorithms. The Sorensen model is the most complete, even though some modifications were required both to the model equations (adding useful compartments for modelling subcutaneous insulin delivery) and to the parameter values. In the present work several simulated experiments, such as IVGTTs and OGTTs, were used as tools to compare the three formulations in order to establish to what extent increasing complexity translates into richer and more correct physiological behaviour. All the equations and parameters used for carrying out the simulations are provided.

A population approach for the estimation of methylmercury ToxicoKinetics in red mullets.

It is known that, as the vast majority of the anthropogenically emitted mercury can be found in aquatic ecosystems, where several methylating bacteria are present, fish consumption represents the most critical intake source of the most toxic form of mercury, the methylmercury (MeHg). The aim of this work is to predict MeHg levels in the fish muscles which, being the edible portion, are part of the human diet. A physiologically based toxicokinetics model was developed to evaluate the kinetics of MeHg in red mullets. Fishes were described by means of a multi-compartment model including stomach, gut, blood, muscles and an additional compartment virtually encompassing all the remaining organs. Absorption, distribution and excretion were modelled considering different MeHg routes of administration and excretion: intake by ingestion of contaminated food, intake and elimination through inhalation-exhalation and excretion through feces. The model has been firstly validated on Terapon jarbua fish (using the weighted least squares method for parameter estimation) to be subsequently readapted to predict methylmercury concentrations in the muscle of red mullets (using an approximate Bayesian computation approach). This simple multicompartmental model could be considered part, a link in the chain, of a wider more complex project aiming at tracking the fate of MeHg from polluted seawater to the human end consumer. The present study could be useful to surveillance organizations in order to carry out a more comprehensive and informed risk assessment analysis and to take appropriate preventive measures by evaluating possible new MeHg concentration thresholds to minimize public health hazards.

Seven Mathematical Models of Hemorrhagic Shock.

Although mathematical modelling of pressure-flow dynamics in the cardiocirculatory system has a lengthy history, readily finding the appropriate model for the experimental situation at hand is often a challenge in and of itself. An ideal model would be relatively easy to use and reliable, besides being ethically acceptable. Furthermore, it would address the pathogenic features of the cardiovascular disease that one seeks to investigate. No universally valid model has been identified, even though a host of models have been developed. The object of this review is to describe several of the most relevant mathematical models of the cardiovascular system: the physiological features of circulatory dynamics are explained, and their mathematical formulations are compared. The focus is on the whole-body scale mathematical models that portray the subject's responses to hypovolemic shock. The models contained in this review differ from one another, both in the mathematical methodology adopted and in the physiological or pathological aspects described. Each model, in fact, mimics different aspects of cardiocirculatory physiology and pathophysiology to varying degrees: some of these models are geared to better understand the mechanisms of vascular hemodynamics, whereas others focus more on disease states so as to develop therapeutic standards of care or to test novel approaches. We will elucidate key issues involved in the modeling of cardiovascular system and its control by reviewing seven of these models developed to address these specific purposes.

Modeling continuous glucose monitoring with fractional differential equations subject to shocks.

Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) produces long time-series of noisy observations of a single variable (tissue glucose concentration), whose evolution may be explained by a dynamical model. In order to represent the unknown mixture of possible control mechanisms of different orders affecting the measured variable, a fractional differential approach seems justified. In any case, variations in food intake and/or physical activity ought to be taken into account if a plausible interpretation of the dynamics is to be obtained. In the present work, the mathematical construction and the numerical implementation of a Fractional Differential Equations (FDE) initial value problem are systematically reviewed, with the intent of offering the reader a concise and mathematically rigorous description of this approach. An FDE model for CGM is formulated: the model includes compartments for stomach and intestinal glucose contents and for blood and tissue (subcutaneous) glucose concentrations, as well as the shock effects of food ingestion and of increased glucose consumption due to physical activity. The model parameters, including the (non-integer) order of differentiation, are estimated from CGM observations on six Type 1 diabetic patients. The best-fit fractional orders for the six subjects range from 1.59 to 2.13. For comparison, best fits have also been computed for all subjects using an average fractional order of 1.9 and integer orders of 1 and 2.The results indicate that in the case of CGM the fractional differential model, which should be physiologically more appropriate, in fact fits the data much better than the first-order model and also better than the 2nd-order model.

Comparative efficacy of different weight loss treatments on knee osteoarthritis: A network meta-analysis.

The lifetime risk of developing symptomatic knee osteoarthritis is 60% in subjects with obesity. It is unclear which is the best weight loss interventions leading to a meaningful improvement of osteoarthritis symptoms and clinical conditions in subjects with obesity. Our network meta-analysis compares different weight loss interventions on the improvement of osteoarthritis symptoms and clinical conditions in subjects affected by obesity. PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane databases were systematically searched for eligible studies until November 2020. Thirty eligible studies comprising 4651 adults (74.6% women) were included. The most effective interventions reducing pain were bariatric surgery, low-calorie diet and exercise, and intensive weight loss and exercise (-62.7 [95% CrI: -74.6, -50.6]; -34.4 [95% CrI: -48.1, -19.5]; -27.1 [95% CrI: -40.4, -13.6] respectively). For every 1% weight loss Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis (WOMAC) pain, function, and stiffness scores decreased by about 2% points. In conclusion, our meta-analysis shows that a substantial weight loss is necessary to reduce significantly knee pain and joint stiffness and to improve physical function: 25% weight reduction from baseline is necessary to obtain a 50% reduction of each subscale of the WOMAC score. However, performing physical exercise is essential to preserve the lean body mass and to avoid sarcopenia. Our results apply to a large spectrum of body mass index (BMI), from overweight to severe obesity.

A quasi-equilibrium reduced model of pancreatic insulin secretion.

Much attention has been devoted in the last few decades to mathematical models of insulin secretion, in order to better understand the regulation of glycemia and its derangements. The glucose-insulin homeostatic mechanism is so complex and gives rise to such diverse behavior following perturbations that different models had been published, which reproduced the results of single experiments. More recently, a unifying model of pancreatic insulin secretion was proposed, which is able to account, with a single value of the (meta)parameters, for the wide array of clinically observed behavior. This model explicitly represented the pulsatile nature of the many pancreatic hormone-secreting firing units: the price to pay for its flexibility and performance is the very high dimensionality (hundreds of thousand equations) of the corresponding dynamical system. Clearly, it would be desirable to reduce this model to a much simpler form while retaining its power to reproduce heterogeneous phenomena. The present work reviews the qualitative behavior of this pancreas pulsatile model and offers some insight into its reduction in equilibrium and quasi-equilibrium conditions, also considering single-shot (non-repeated) glucose jumps from an approximately resting condition (such as would occur in standard Intra-Venous bolus dosing of glucose during diabetes diagnostic maneuvers). The resulting quasi-steady-state model can be further endowed with additional lower-order dynamics to also approximate transient behavior. Although a more accurate reduction of the original pulsatile model is left to further investigation, numerical results confirm the biomedical applicability of the formulation already obtained.

Metabolic surgery versus conventional medical therapy in patients with type 2 diabetes: 10-year follow-up of an open-label, single-centre, randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: No data from randomised controlled trials of metabolic surgery for diabetes are available beyond 5 years of follow-up. We aimed to assess 10-year follow-up after surgery compared with medical therapy for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. METHODS: We did a 10-year follow-up study of an open-label, single-centre (tertiary hospital in Rome, Italy), randomised controlled trial, in which patients with type 2 diabetes (baseline duration >5 years; glycated haemoglobin [HbA1c] >7·0%, and body-mass index ≥35 kg/m2) were randomly assigned (1:1:1) to medical therapy, Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB), or biliopancreatic diversion (BPD) by a computerised system. The primary endpoint of the study was diabetes remission at 2 years (HbA1c <6·5% and fasting glycaemia <5·55 mmol/L without ongoing medication for at least 1 year). In the 10-year analysis, durability of diabetes remission was analysed by intention to treat (ITT). This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00888836. FINDINGS: Between April 30, 2009, and Oct 31, 2011, of 72 patients assessed for eligibility, 60 were included. The 10-year follow-up rate was 95·0% (57 of 60). Of all patients who were surgically treated, 15 (37·5%) maintained diabetes remission throughout the 10-year period. Specifically, 10-year remission rates in the ITT population were 5·5% for medical therapy (95% CI 1·0-25·7; one participant went into remission after crossover to surgery), 50·0% for BPD (29·9-70·1), and 25·0% for RYGB (11·2-46·9; p=0·0082). 20 (58·8%) of 34 participants who were observed to be in remission at 2 years had a relapse of hyperglycaemia during the follow-up period (BPD 52·6% [95% CI 31·7-72·7]; RYGB 66·7% [41·7-84·8]). All individuals with relapse, however, maintained adequate glycaemic control at 10 years (mean HbA1c 6·7% [SD 0·2]). Participants in the RYGB and BPD groups had fewer diabetes-related complications than those in the medical therapy group (relative risk 0·07 [95% CI 0·01-0·48] for both comparisons). Serious adverse events occurred more frequently among participants in the BPD group (odds ratio [OR] for BPD vs medical therapy 2·7 [95% CI 1·3-5·6]; OR for RYGB vs medical therapy 0·7 [0·3-1·9]). INTERPRETATION: Metabolic surgery is more effective than conventional medical therapy in the long-term control of type 2 diabetes. Clinicians and policy makers should ensure that metabolic surgery is appropriately considered in the management of patients with obesity and type 2 diabetes. FUNDING: Fondazione Policlinico Universitario Agostino Gemelli IRCCS.